There’s a new term in California called “Greenouts.” It’s used to explain the recent outages due to a shortfall in power, which many believe is a result of the state’s focus on increasing solar penetration and decommissioning their fossil and nuclear assets. The increase in solar energy has been impressive, but when a heat waves approaches and the sun starts to set, a recipe for problem starts to brew. If you don’t believe me, here’s an excerpt from a recent Wall Street Journal.
WSJ Aug. 24, 2020 Excerpt:
“California often relies on imported power from other states to help fill its void. But when a heat wave gripped the Western US this month, the state struggled to replace up to 8,000 megawatts of disappearing renewable energy as evening approached.
“The events, which have occurred as the state is also fighting wildfires, and millions are home due to the coronavirus, have coined a new word in California, used by critics of the state’s renewable energy emphasis: “Greenouts.”
“In a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsome, the state’s utilities commission and grid operator were unequivocal in their commitment to the state’s clean-energy goals. The letter shouldn’t become a scapegoat and said, “Clean energy and reliable energy are not contradictory goals.”
The last part stands out to me, specifically “clean energy and reliable energy are not contradictory goals.” And I agree with this statement...for the most part. The problem is clean AND reliable energy is expensive, at least until someone cracks the code. We know how to build solar and wind facilities. We know how to build energy storage systems. We can solve the problem mechanically. Having rate payers and consumers pay for it is the problem, especially in a state that is heavily taxed, lives with inflated real estate costs, and has an already high cost of living. The state, which is still working to balance its budget, will also have a difficult time subsidizing solutions through tax credits or cash handouts to incentivize the answer to their problems, especially since surplus cash is being prioritize to coronavirus relief efforts and they just enacted limits on business incentive tax credits for the next 3 years.
One of the bright spots is that California will be the case study for the rest of the US. Capacity reserves, demand duck curve changes, consumer behavior, e-vehicle penetration, etc. will provide the rest of us with key information on how our energy supply and demand may look in the coming future. This will allow the rest of us to build better models and plan ahead without sacrificing reliability. Unfortunately, Californians will be the guinea pigs in the meantime.